A Small Global Forecasting Model [E-Book] / David Rae and David Turner
Rae, David.
Turner, David.
Paris : OECD Publishing, 2001
36 p. ; 21 x 29.7cm.
OECD Economics Department Working Papers ; 286
Full Text
This paper describes the OECD’s new small global forecasting model for the three main OECD economic regions: the United States, the euro area, and Japan. The key variables – which include output, inflation, the trade balance, and import prices – are driven by monetary and fiscal policy, exchange rates, and world demand. The projections from the model are used as a starting point to help animate the early stages of the OECD’s forecasting round. The model is essentially a demand-side model with a particular focus on the impact of global linkages and the transmission of influences between regions ...