Dating business cycle turning points [E-Book]: The Greek economy during 1970-2012 and the recent recession / Ekaterini Tsouma
Tsouma, Ekaterini .
Paris : OECD Publishing, 2014
24 p.
Full Text
This paper establishes a reference chronology for the Greek business cycle from early 1970 to late 2012, against the backdrop of the late 2000s global recession and the most recent domestic economic developments, which once again stress the significance of dating business cycle turning points. The derivation of the exact dates of switches between expansions and recessions allows the identification of the point in time at which the Greek economy entered the recent recessionary business cycle regime in the late 2000s and the verification of the assertion that, up to the end of 2012, it had not yet exited the recession. We rely on both non-parametric and parametric procedures in order to check the coherence among the obtained turning points and evaluate the establishment of a reference chronology. We use quarterly GDP data and selected monthly indicators covering important sectors and activities in the Greek economy. On the basis of the obtained exact turning point dates and the indications provided by several business cycle and phases characteristics, we are able to propose a reference chronology for Greece and outline stylised facts of the Greek business cycle for a time period of over 40 years. Our findings clearly suggest that the Greek economy entered a recessionary business cycle regime in 2008 which was continued throughout 2012.