How do the OECD Growth Projections for the G7 Economies Perform? [E-Book]: A Post-Mortem / Lukas Vogel
The quality of the OECD's Economic Outlook growth projections was last evaluated in-house at the peak of the previous business cycle, calling for a reassessment. This paper analyses the OECD's annual GDP growth projections for the G7 countries over the period 1991-2006 and compares them wi...
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Full text |
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Personal Name(s): | Vogel, Lukas. |
Imprint: |
Paris :
OECD Publishing,
2007
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Physical Description: |
33 p. ; 21 x 29.7cm. |
Note: |
englisch |
DOI: |
10.1787/111804483765 |
Series Title: |
/* Depending on the record driver, $field may either be an array with
"name" and "number" keys or a flat string containing only the series
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OECD Economics Department Working Papers ;
573 |
Keywords: |
Economics |
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520 | 3 | |a The quality of the OECD's Economic Outlook growth projections was last evaluated in-house at the peak of the previous business cycle, calling for a reassessment. This paper analyses the OECD's annual GDP growth projections for the G7 countries over the period 1991-2006 and compares them with the Consensus Economics forecasts. It shows that OECD growth projections display a number of desirable features: projections for the current year are unbiased and efficient; projection errors tend to shrink as the horizon shortens; and projections are directionally accurate most of the time. Like those produced elsewhere, the OECD projections also suffer from shortcomings: one-year-ahead projections display a positive bias, mainly reflecting a propensity to overpredict during slowdowns; spring one-year-ahead projections are far less informative than autumn ones; and turning points are poorly anticipated one year ahead. Regression tests suggest that the OECD and Consensus add value to naïve forecasts for spring current-year and autumn one-year-ahead projections. | |
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