Improving Bayesian Reasoning: What Works and Why? [E-Book] / David R. Mandel ; Gorka Navarrete
We confess that the first part of our title is somewhat of a misnomer. Bayesian reasoning is a normative approach to probabilistic belief revision and, as such, it is in need of no improvement. Rather, it is the typical individual whose reasoning and judgments often fall short of the Bayesian ideal...
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Full text |
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Imprint: |
Lausanne :
Frontiers Media SA,
2016
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Physical Description: |
1 electronic resource (207 pages) |
Note: |
englisch |
ISBN: |
9782889197453 |
Keywords: |
Bayesian reasoning ; belief revision ; Risk Communication ; subjective probability ; human judgment ; psychological methods ; individual differences ; Bayesianism ; probabilistic judgment |
Subject (LOC): |
We confess that the first part of our title is somewhat of a misnomer. Bayesian reasoning is a normative approach to probabilistic belief revision and, as such, it is in need of no improvement. Rather, it is the typical individual whose reasoning and judgments often fall short of the Bayesian ideal who is the focus of improvement. What have we learnt from over a half-century of research and theory on this topic that could explain why people are often non-Bayesian? Can Bayesian reasoning be facilitated, and if so why? These are the questions that motivate this Frontiers in Psychology Research Topic. Bayes' theorem, named after English statistician, philosopher, and Presbyterian minister, Thomas Bayes, offers a method for updating one’s prior probability of an hypothesis H on the basis of new data D such that P(H |