Limits of Predictability [E-Book] / edited by Yurii A. Kravtsov.
Kravtsov, Yurii A., (editor)
Berlin, Heidelberg : Springer, 1993
XIII, 255 p. 13 illus. in color. online resource.
englisch
9783642510083
10.1007/978-3-642-51008-3
Springer Series in Synergetics ; 60
Full Text
Table of Contents:
  • 1. Introduction
  • References
  • 2. Forecasting Weather and Climate
  • 2.1 Weather and Climate
  • 2.2 Dynamical Systems and Their Properties
  • 2.3 Weather Predictability
  • 2.4 Elements of Stationary Random Process Prediction Theory
  • 2.5 Predictability of Climatic Processes
  • 2.6 Ways to Improve Statistical Forecasting
  • 2.7 Utilization of Forecasting Results
  • 2.8 Conclusion
  • References
  • 3. How an Active Autowave Medium Can Be Used to Predict the Future
  • 3.1 Prediction
  • 3.2 Active Autowave Media
  • 3.3 Autowave Propagation in Energy-Restoring Active Media
  • 3.4 Dynamics of Autowave Interaction
  • 3.5 The External Medium Model and Its Fourier Image
  • 3.6 Non-isochronism of Cyclic Processes
  • 3.7 Harmonious Modulation and Modulation of Harmonics
  • 3.8 The Fourier Image Cleared by the Active Autowave Medium
  • References
  • 4. Synergetics, Predictability and Deterministic Chaos
  • 4.1 Dynamical Chaos
  • 4.2 Nonlinearity and Open Systems Behavior
  • 4.3 Synergetics and Order Parameters
  • 4.4 Strangeness of the Strange Attractors
  • 4.5 Dynamical Chaos and Reality
  • 4.6 Dynamical Chaos. Gates of Fairyland
  • References
  • 5. The Information-Theoretic Approach to Assessing Reliability of Forecasts
  • 5.1 Assessing Forecasts
  • 5.2 Forecasting as the Subject Matter of Information Theory
  • 5.3 An Example
  • 5.4 Optimization of Forecasting Methods
  • 5.5 Properties Shared by Prediction Methods
  • 5.6 The Connection Between Discounting and Non-stationarity
  • 5.7 Conclusion
  • References
  • 6. Prediction of Time Series
  • 6.1 The Problem
  • 6.2 Genesis of Random Phenomena
  • 6.3 Time Series Prediction Based on Dynamical Chaos Theory
  • 6.4 Prediction of Point Processes
  • 6.5 The Nature of Errors Hindering Prediction
  • 6.6 Prediction of Strong Earthquakes
  • References
  • 7. Fundamental and Practical Limits of Predictability
  • 7.1 Predictability
  • 7.2 Real, Observed, and Model Processes
  • 7.3 Degree of Predictability. The Predictability Horizon
  • 7.4 Searching for Prediction Models
  • 7.5 Limits to Predictability
  • 7.6 Dynamical Analogs to Social and Economic Phenomena
  • 7.7 Conclusion
  • References
  • 8. The Future is Foreseeable but not Predictable: The ‘Oedipus Effect’ in Social Forecasting
  • 8.1 Historical Background
  • 8.2 The ‘Oedipus Effect’ in Social Forecasting
  • 8.3 The Problem of Foresight and Prediction in Globalistics
  • 8.4 The Problem of Foreseeing and Predicting the Development of the Former Soviet Society
  • References
  • Appendix A: Looking Back on the August 1991 Coup
  • Appendix B: Looking Ahead
  • 9. The Self-Organization of American Society in Presidential and Senatorial Elections
  • 9.1 Historical Background
  • 9.2 The American Presidential Election: Formal Analysis
  • 9.3 Midterm Senatorial Elections: Formal Analysis
  • 9.4 Discussion
  • References
  • 10. Problems of Predictability in Ethnogenic Studies
  • References.