This title appears in the Scientific Report : 2021 
Einflüsse von Klimavariabilität und -wandel auf Ausbau und Erzeugung im Europäischen Stromsystem
Gotzens, Fabian Paul (Corresponding author)
Systemforschung und Technologische Entwicklung; IEK-STE
Jülich Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH Zentralbibliothek, Verlag 2021
XXIII, 231 S.
RWTH Aachen, Diss., 2020
978-3-95806-530-7
Book
Dissertation / PhD Thesis
Energiesystemtransformation
Schriften des Forschungszentrums Jülich. Reihe Energie & Umwelt / Energy & Environment 531
OpenAccess
Please use the identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/2128/27876 in citations.


Through the combustion of fossil fuels, humankind contributes to an increase in the concentration of CO$_{2}$ in the earth’ atmosphere and, thus, to increasing global warming. This is known as anthropogenic climate change. One instrument for mitigating the consequences of climate change is the expansion of low-emission technologies such as renewable energies. Less research has, however, been done into the opposite direction of effect, i.e. whether and how climate change affects the energy system. Closely linked to this topic of long-term-climate change is the so-called short-term-climate variability, which is reflected e.g. in warmer/colder or windier/calmer years. The aim of this thesis is the supply and demand-side analysis of climate variability and change effects on the expansion (installed capacity) and the generation (amount of energy) in the European electricity system. For this purpose, a generation expansion planning model encompassing 28 countries has been developed, which is capable of calculating scenario-based development paths. For comparison with different climate scenarios, a general reference scenario has been modelled, which is based on all other input data and assumptions. Climate variability is represented by an algorithm-based selection of historical weather years from a more-than-30-year period of wind and photovoltaic time series. Furthermore, the study investigate show climate change affects the feed-in of wind turbines and the demand for electricity under rising ambient temperatures in Europe. This is done using spatially and temporally high-resolution projection data from Earth system models under various greenhouse gas concentration scenarios. It is shown that although climate variability plausibly influences the model results in the direction of impact, the deviations from the reference scenario are in the low, single-digit range (<3%). An influence of climate change effects on wind power generation can also be demonstrated, but there is no clear spatial trend in the studied scenarios being found. However, the influence on electricity demand is spatially unambiguous, since higher outside temperatures induce lower heating loads in Northern Europe and increased air conditioning loads in Southern Europe, which, however, diverge seasonally. This insight should be taken into account in particular when dimensioning the expansion of the European interconnected grid as well as in legal requirements with regard to insulation standards for buildings.