This title appears in the Scientific Report :
2022
Electric Vehicles in Germany: A Consumer Perspective
Electric Vehicles in Germany: A Consumer Perspective
Electric Vehicles in Germany: A Consumer PerspectiveElektrofahrzeuge in Deutschland: Eine KonsumentenperspektiveAuthors: Julian Reul *,a,b, Stefan Kraus a,b, Thomas Grube a, Jochen Linßen a and Detlef Stolten a,ba Institute of Energy and Climate Research – Techno-economic Systems Analysis (IEK-3), F...
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Personal Name(s): | Reul, Julian (Corresponding author) |
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Kraus, Stefan / Grube, Thomas / Linssen, Jochen / Stolten, Detlef | |
Contributing Institute: |
Technoökonomische Systemanalyse; IEK-3 |
Imprint: |
2022
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Conference: | 31st Aachen Colloquium, Aachen (Germany), 2022-10-10 - 2022-10-12 |
Document Type: |
Abstract |
Research Program: |
Societally Feasible Transformation Pathways Effective System Transformation Pathways |
Publikationsportal JuSER |
Electric Vehicles in Germany: A Consumer PerspectiveElektrofahrzeuge in Deutschland: Eine KonsumentenperspektiveAuthors: Julian Reul *,a,b, Stefan Kraus a,b, Thomas Grube a, Jochen Linßen a and Detlef Stolten a,ba Institute of Energy and Climate Research – Techno-economic Systems Analysis (IEK-3), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Wilhelm-Johnen-Straße, 52428 Jülich, Germanyb Chair for Fuel Cells, RWTH Aachen University, c/o Institute of Energy and Climate Research - Techno-economic Systems Analysis (IEK-3), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Wilhelm-Johnen-Str., 52428 Jülich, GermanyThe electrification of the German passenger vehicle fleet is a key pillar of the political ambition to achieve climate neutrality in Germany by the year 2045. In line with this ambition, the German government announced the goal of licensing 15 million fully electric vehicles by 2030. How will the market for electric vehicles develop and do consumer preferences correspond to this political ambition?For this study, we conducted a stated preference survey among 451 potential car buyers in Germany in autumn of 2021 and calibrated a mixed logit model to elicit the distribution of consumer preferences amongst four choice alternatives: Internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs). Furthermore, we simulate market shares and the passenger fleet composition in Germany through 2050, assuming a potential ban on ICEV and PHEV sales from 2035 onwards, a varying availability of FCEVs, and shifting consumer preferences towards electrified vehicles over time.The results show a penetration of 3.0–3.4 million fully electric vehicles in the German passenger vehicle fleet by 2030, by far missing the political target of 15 million. Furthermore, we identify a ban on ICEV and PHEV sales from 2035 onwards as being crucial for the uptake of electric mobility. Assuming this ban, we simulate a share of 87% fully electric vehicles in the German passenger car fleet by 2050, compared to 37–45% in the case of no such political action being taken. If FCEV availability remains restricted to high-priced vehicles, three times more BEVs than FCEVs will populate the German passenger car fleet in 2050, according to our simulations. In case, FCEVs will also be available in low- to medium-priced segments from 2025 onwards, we find close to equal levels of penetration for BEVs and FCEVs by 2050. |