This title appears in the Scientific Report :
2006
Please use the identifier:
http://hdl.handle.net/2128/2523 in citations.
Chancen und Risiken zukünftiger netzgebundener Versorgung. Ein multi-kriterielles Verfahren zur Bewertung von Zukunftsszenarien
Chancen und Risiken zukünftiger netzgebundener Versorgung. Ein multi-kriterielles Verfahren zur Bewertung von Zukunftsszenarien
Shaping the developments of network-based supply systems is a difficult challenge in the context of preparing for the future. The structures for supplying the public with the basic goods electricity, gas and water, and also telecommunication services, have become the subject of public debates. A sus...
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Personal Name(s): | Karger, Cornelia R. (Name) |
---|---|
Hennings, Wilfried (Name) / Jäger, Tobias (Name) | |
Contributing Institute: |
Programmgruppe Mensch, Umwelt, Technik; MUT |
Imprint: |
Jülich
Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH Zentralbibliothek, Verlag
2006
|
Physical Description: |
296 S. |
ISBN: |
3-89336-445-5 |
Document Type: |
Book |
Research Program: |
Nachhaltige Entwicklung und Technik |
Series Title: |
Schriften des Forschungszentrums Jülich. Reihe Umwelt / Environment
64 |
Link: |
OpenAccess |
Publikationsportal JuSER |
Shaping the developments of network-based supply systems is a difficult challenge in the context of preparing for the future. The structures for supplying the public with the basic goods electricity, gas and water, and also telecommunication services, have become the subject of public debates. A sustainable future for the supplies is being sought: measures for protecting the climate have been requested; citizens have committed themselves to opposing not only planned power stations, and coal mining, but also wind power plants; energy resources like coal, oil and natural gas are becoming scarce and expensive. At the same time, the supply utilities must meet the challenges of privatization, market openings and globalization. The pressure of high costs necessitates savings. The question is which choices are open within the framework of these determining factors. "Sustainability" is an uncontested guideline for shaping the future of supplies. Several proposals for sustainably securing future supplies have already been discussed, e. g. making the supply systems more efficient by means of modern telecommunications, or relying more on decentralized energy generation and the utilization of renewable energy sources as a way out of the CO$_{2}$ problematic. However, what specific requirements will pave the way for a sustainable path into the future remains unclear. On one hand, there is the problem of "normativity" of the sustainability concept. lt is a matter of the subjective aims and values in a society, which in the end evade a scientific decidability. Thus there are different and often controversial concepts about what is meant by sustainable supplies. On the other hand, decisions must be made under conditions of great uncertainty. How and in which direction the supply sectors will develop and which ecological, economical and social effects could be associated with these directions still remains open. lt is also unclear what positions stakeholders will take on different future supply options. Setting the course for a sustainable future supply means that a method is needed for diagnosing the opportunities and risks of future developments as early as possible and for leveling out promising paths. The bases upon which decisions are made should be as transparent as possible and hence be easy to understand and put into action. lt is against this background that this study looks at specific options for the future and uses this as a basis for developing a method which tries to answer the question "What is it that we want?". lt is not about an abstract discussion of the sustainability of future supplies or the contribution of specific technologies to sustainability, but about views of the future of supplies with respect to all societal aspects, with reference to which specific objectives are discussed, the pros and cons of which are weighed up, and regarding which the expected conflicts and potentials for reaching a consensus are leveled out. The essential features of this method are the multiple stages involved and the inclusion of science and society. Scientific and societal actors are involved in structured stages that build upon each other so that the elaborate opportunities and risks of different options for the future can be hammered out. The study was funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) within the joint research project "Integrierte Mikrosysteme der Versorgung" (Integrated Microsystems for Supply) within the focal framework of "social-ecological research". |